The Art of Legitimate Decision Making


Carina I. Hausladen

Why US Politics is Broken—and How to Fix it.
1,481,549 views | Andrew Yang | April 2024

How are different voting methods perceived?

Are there differences with respect to legitimacy?

How Voting Rules Impact Legitimacy


Carina I. Hausladen, Regula Hänggli-Fricker, Dirk Helbing, Renato Kunz, Junling Wang, Evangelos Pournaras

Behavioral Experiment

A voting method

consists of an 

input mechansim and 

an aggregation rule.

Four voting methods

choose one

approve,

stay neutral,

disapprove

assign points

0

0

1

3

5

choose & rank

1

2

3

majority

voting

combined approval

voting

range

voting

modified Borda

count

Measuring Legitimacy

Scharpf (1999), Schmidt (2013)

  • input-legitimacy
  • output-legitimacy 
  • throughput legitimacy

acceptance

influence

trust

fairness

Weil and Hänggli (2021)

  • empirically measure those dimensions
  • four clusters of questions
     
  • found that all factors load on PC1 (74% of variance)
  • allows us to address them with a single question

acceptance

influence

trust

fairness

Measuring Legitimacy

 

"I would comply with the result and accept it as fair, reflecting my and others’ opinions."

 

strongly agree | somewhat disagree | neutral | somehwat agree | strongly agree

Please assess the following statement for each voting method applied.

Context

Context

Polarizing

Context

Polarizing

  • Vaccine regulation
    • How should the government regulate COVID-19 vaccines?
  • ICU access
    • Among COVID-19 patients, which criteria should grant access to an intensive care unit?
  • Infection protection
    • Which protection measure(s) against a COVID-19 infection is the most effective one?
  • Government strategy
    • Which strategy should the government adopt to fight the COVID-19 pandemic?
  • Vaccine regulation
  • ICU access
  • Infection protection
  • Government strategy

Control question

What is your favorite color?

Control question

Legitimacy rating

  • Vaccine regulation
  • ICU access
  • Infection protection
  • Government strategy

Legitimacy rating

choose one

approve,

stay neutral,

disapprove

assign points

0

0

1

3

5

choose & rank

1

2

3

Results

  • n=120
  • 36% female
  • Mean age: μ=25.47μ=25.47
  • 37% with Bachelor's degree
  • 22 countries

vaccination

 

vaccination

 

vaccination

 

vaccination

Vaccine regulation

ICU access
 

Infection protection

Government strategy

Winning options vary by input method.

Why?

Vaccine regulation

ICU access
 

Infection protection

Government strategy

Standard deviation
(Schmitt, 2016)

Divisiveness
(Navarrete et al., 2022)

\[ s_{mv} \in \{0,1\} \]

 

\[s_{cav} \in\{-1, 0, 1\}\]

 

\[s_{sv} \in\{0,1,2,3,4\}\]

 

\[s_{mbc} \in\{0,1,2,3,4\}\]

Vaccine regulation

ICU access
 

Infection protection

Government strategy

Standard deviation
(Schmitt, 2016)

Divisiveness
(Navarrete et al., 2022)

Infection protection

Government strategy

Vaccine regulation

ICU access
 

The choice of voting method is especially crucial when preferences are highly polarized. 

 

"I would comply with the result and accept it as fair, reflecting my and others’ opinions."

 

strongly agree | somewhat disagree | neutral | somehwat agree | strongly agree

 

 

 

 

How do participants evaluate the perceived legitimacy of various voting methods?

 

 

 

 

 

Color

COVID

Vaccine regulation

ICU access
 

Infection protection

Government strategy

4—

 

3—

 

2—

 

1—

 

0—

legitimacy rating

range
voting

 

modified
Borda
count

combined
approval
voting

majority
voting

declining nuance

COVID

4—

 

3—

 

2—

 

1—

 

0—

legitimacy rating

range
voting

 

modified
Borda
count

combined
approval
voting

majority
voting

Color

4—

 

3—

 

2—

 

1—

 

0—

legitimacy rating

range
voting

 

modified
Borda
count

combined
approval
voting

majority
voting

Color

COVID
 

7.02e^-06***

0.04*

 

Flexibility in voting methods is perceived as more legitimate in a political context.

 

 

 

Is range voting always the best choice in a political context?

It depends on the voter.

0

0

1

3

5

1

2

Measuring consistency

 

Among COVID-19 patients, which criteria should grant access to an intensive care unit?

 

no vaccine denial

no lockdown violation

no health self-damage

youngest

oldest

majority

voting

combined approval

voting

range

voting

modified Borda

voting

 

Consistent Voter

 

0

0

1

3

5

1

2

Measuring consistency

 

Among COVID-19 patients, which criteria should grant access to an intensive care unit?

 

no vaccine denial

no lockdown violation

no health self-damage

youngest

oldest

majority

voting

combined approval

voting

range

voting

modified Borda

voting

 

Inconsistent Voter

 

increasing nuance

 

 

 

Voters who consistently express their preferences
rate voting methods that allow for detailed preference expression
as more legitimate than those
who vote inconsistently.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

range
voting

 

modified
Borda
count

combined
approval
voting

majority
voting

4—

 

3—

 

2—

 

1—

 

0—

legitimacy rating

consistent

inconsistent

0.02*

0.04*

Conclusion

Different voting methods lead to different outcomes.

The choice of voting method is particularly important in highly polarized contexts.

The legitimacy of a voting method is context-dependent.

Consistent voters value detailed preference expression more than inconsistent voters.

Range voting received the highest legitimacy ratings.

The Inconsistent Voter.

0

0

1

3

5

1

2

no vaccine denial

no lockdown violation

no health self-damage

youngest

oldest

Preference Reversal is well documented since the 1970s.


Lottery A: 90% chance to win $10

Lottery B: 10% chance to win $100
 

Which lottery would you prefer to play?

How much would you be willing to pay for each lottery?

A > B​

B > A

How much would you be willing to pay for each lottery?

A > B​

B > A

Choice focuses on probability.

Pricing focuses on potential payout.

 

Cognitive & Behavioral Factors.
Comparability Bias.
Framing Effect.
Cognitive Limitations.

 

Which lottery would you prefer to play?

Can we empower citizens to be less susceptible to these effects?

 

Cognitive & Behavioral Factors.
Comparability Bias.
Framing Effect.
Cognitive Limitations.

 

A virtual reality experiment to study pedestrian perception of future street scenarios

J Argota Sánchez-Vaquerizo, CI Hausladen, et al., Scientific Reports, 2024.

Citizens’ assemblies, and discussion groups can reduce the effects of framing and other cognitive biases on preferences.

In Switzerland, these processes are traditionally conducted offline and are not easily scalable.

Instead, preferences are often formed online and based on resources that are deliberately designed to polarize.

How can deliberative processes in urban planning be scaled while maintaining constructive discussion and fostering stable preferences?

An exciting new possibility:

VR + LLM-powered avatars

Voice-to-voice capabilities make discussions natural and immersive.

Status quo: VR environment of Lausanne's old town.

Design concepts from an ongoing renovation project.

Future scenario

Activate meta-cognition, avoid persuasion

  • Democratic backsliding (Braley, NHB, 2023)
  • Perspective taking (Lukošiūnaitė, Scientific Reports, 2024)
  • Reputation in a nested group structure (Schnell, PNAS, 2024)
  • Highlighting Social Perception (Fiske 2008, Hausladen 2024)

carinah@ethz.ch

slides.com/carinah

S

Carina I. Hausladen, Manuel Knott, Colin F. Camerer, Pietro Perona.

Social perception of faces in a vision-language model

Submitted to FaccT 2025.

Carina I. Hausladen, Manuel Knott, Colin F. Camerer, Pietro Perona.

Can we transfer these insights to AI Alignment?

Three important questions.

  • What to ask?

  • How to ask?

  • How to aggregate?

What to ask?

Revealed preferences
fail to serve
individual or
societal well-being.

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback

.

.

.

.

.

.

Initial Language Model

 

 

 

 

 

.

.

.

.

.

.

Reward Preference Model

 

 

 

 

 

.

.

.

.

.

.

Tuned Language Model

 

 

 

 

 

Reinforcement Learning Update

Majority Voting

Combined Approval Voting?

Range Voting?

How to ask?

.

.

.

.

.

.

Reward Preference Model

 

 

 

 

 

How to aggregate?

Bradley Terry

Proportional

Aggregation

PRISM

  • Who provides feedback matters.
  • Sampling decisions affect collective welfare.
  • Cross-cultural perspectives and disagreements.

 

Appendix

Perception of legitimacy is linked to appreciating flexibility in range voting.  

The independence of the perceived legitimacy from COVID- 19-related topics confirms the validity of our legitimacy framework.

VoteLab:

A Modular and Adaptive Experimentation Platform for Online Collective Decision Making

Renato Kunz, Fatemeh Banaie, Abhinav Sharma,
Carina I. Hausladen, Dirk Helbing and Evangelos Pournaras

On the stability of cooperative behavior

Given that social prefrences for cooperation
and cooepration can be seen as a set as a style of large scale oooepration is there probablt a social prefernce for frequent stretch shifting?
Should we account for this in our styrategy on how we go about voting beavhior?
What could be some new ways that we look at all of this?

Policy Implications

If

little experience in direct democratic participation

facing a new or polarizing context

Graduated approach

first select and communicate the deciding voting method

then progressively engage voters with the issue through multiple rounds

from simple majority voting to more complex methods like range voting.

This graduated approach could help voters to crystallize their preferences without feeling overwhelmed.

Which software allows us to test our hypothesis?

Digital voting platforms

limited number of voting methods

lack of meta-data collection for understanding voting behavior

Policy Implications

  • If  facing a new or polarizing context:
  • First, select and communicate the deciding voting method
  • then progressively engage voters with the issue through multiple rounds
  • from simple majority voting to more complex methods like range voting.

Interested in VoteLab?

Back to the Future 2025

By Carina Ines Hausladen

Back to the Future 2025

Presentation for Back to the Future 2025.

  • 61