ZPAN - Draft

Subproblem 2.1 - Progression from A.P. to Diabetes Mellitus due to underlying conditions

Inclusion Criteria:
Patients of any age with any K85 (Acute Pancreatitis) code recorded, with >= 1 year of records leading to the first K85 diagnosis available

Exclusion Criteria:

Patients with any Diabetes Mellitus prior to the first K85 diagnosis are excluded.

Prediction Target: Diabetes Mellitus due to Underlying Conditions (E08, E13)

Time of Prediction: Date of the first K85 diagnosis

Observation window: 1 to 2 years leading to the first K85 diagnosis

Prediction Objective: Predict if any Target diagnosis will be recorded within 2 weeks to 2 years following the first K85 diagnosis

Cohort Size:

123,586 patients

Males: 52,427 (42.4%), Females: 71,159 (57.6%)

Case: 397 (29.9%), Control: 17,051 (13.9%)

Mean age at the time of prediction: 51 years 5 months

Patients with Other diseases of pancreas (K86) at the time of first K85 diagnosis:

Case: 397 (29.9%), Control: 17,051 (13.9%)

Subproblem 2.1 - Progression from A.P. to Diabetes Mellitus due to underlying conditions

General Performance

Subproblem 2.1 - Progression from A.P. to Diabetes Mellitus due to underlying conditions

Performance for subsets with and without Other diseases of Pancreas (K86)

in Observation Window

Subproblem 2.1 - Progression from A.P. to Diabetes Mellitus due to underlying conditions

Most influential Diagnostic Codes by mean absolute SHAP value across all True Positive patients

Male Subset

Subproblem 2.1 - Progression from A.P. to Diabetes Mellitus due to underlying conditions

Most influential Diagnostic Codes by mean absolute SHAP value across all True Positive patients

Female Subset

Subproblem 2.1 - Progression from A.P. to Diabetes Mellitus due to underlying conditions

Examples of most influential codes for True Positive patients

Male Subset

Subproblem 2.1 - Progression from A.P. to Diabetes Mellitus due to underlying conditions

Examples of most influential codes for True Positive patients

Male Subset

Subproblem 2.1 - Progression from A.P. to Diabetes Mellitus due to underlying conditions

Examples of most influential codes for True Positive patients

Female Subset

Subproblem 2.1

Diagnoses with Highest statistically significant Log Odds Ratios by organ group

Subproblem 2.1

Diagnoses with Lowest statistically significant Absolute Log Odds Ratios by organ group